Jan 13, 2023·edited Jan 13, 2023Liked by Stephanie Losi
The success of the Montreal Protocol regarding CFCs is impressive indeed. It is interesting how much time is required to mitigate a challenge even with remarkable cooperation. I have seen estimates that point to about 2060 or so for the ozone layer full recovery. Hard problems take a long time to untie all the knots. Nice post! I think it is fair to believe atmospheric CO2 will take a similar effort and perhaps peak around 2075. Not unreasonale to assume despite the warning of not exceeding 250 to 350 ppm, we will likely get closer to 500-600 before we reverse the curve. I think we are now about 415 so the scientific predictions of more variability in the climate seems pretty accurate. Edge predictions less optimistic than me think up to 750 ppm before we reverse the trend.
The success of the Montreal Protocol regarding CFCs is impressive indeed. It is interesting how much time is required to mitigate a challenge even with remarkable cooperation. I have seen estimates that point to about 2060 or so for the ozone layer full recovery. Hard problems take a long time to untie all the knots. Nice post! I think it is fair to believe atmospheric CO2 will take a similar effort and perhaps peak around 2075. Not unreasonale to assume despite the warning of not exceeding 250 to 350 ppm, we will likely get closer to 500-600 before we reverse the curve. I think we are now about 415 so the scientific predictions of more variability in the climate seems pretty accurate. Edge predictions less optimistic than me think up to 750 ppm before we reverse the trend.