2023 was an unsettled year, a brewing year, a pivot point. AI stole the show in some ways, with its seemingly sudden leap in capabilities—and its obviously insufficient controls. Governments, companies, and people worldwide scrambled to adjust to a world that evolved faster than expected. Conflict
"Wisdom and perspective will remain priceless, and human connection will remain the most important part of life. It will become increasingly easy to lose sight of this, and increasingly important not to."
Important quote for those listening or reading.
All the best to You and Yours through 2024 and thank you for your shared thoughts, perspective, and wisdom.
On the political front, I don't have any predictions but I have a curiosity I'll be watching for. And that is whether in the United States the results match what journalists call "the fundamentals."
The reason I bring this up is because if you took the fundamentals of 2016 of who would win and the actual result in 2016 and removed everything in between -- Trump, Clinton, the news cycles, the FBI investigation, every single twist and turn, removed them completely -- the fundamentals matched the result: a very close Republican win, popular vote loss based on a sludgy but not-even-bad economy and the tendency for incumbent two-term parties to lose, balanced off of a voter population that leans Democratic and a voting map that leans Republican.
2020 is basically the same: with a huge global crisis and terrible economy, you'd expect the non-incumbent party to win the Presidency resoundingly, all January 6 stuff aside.
Based on the fundamentals NOW, a strong economy but with lingering resentment for inflation and an incumbent one-term party, the Democrats should win narrowly. Putting who is the actual people and whatever crazy twists and turns aside.
I don't actually believe in the fundamentals. It's just sort of crazy that after all the howling fantods and fury of 2016, it still boiled down to rough statistical par.
"Wisdom and perspective will remain priceless, and human connection will remain the most important part of life. It will become increasingly easy to lose sight of this, and increasingly important not to."
Important quote for those listening or reading.
All the best to You and Yours through 2024 and thank you for your shared thoughts, perspective, and wisdom.
Yes, a big year of change coming up. Although that’s been the case for many of the last 10 years or so.
My boss recently used the word discombobulating. Like that word. Sums it up nicely.
On the political front, I don't have any predictions but I have a curiosity I'll be watching for. And that is whether in the United States the results match what journalists call "the fundamentals."
The reason I bring this up is because if you took the fundamentals of 2016 of who would win and the actual result in 2016 and removed everything in between -- Trump, Clinton, the news cycles, the FBI investigation, every single twist and turn, removed them completely -- the fundamentals matched the result: a very close Republican win, popular vote loss based on a sludgy but not-even-bad economy and the tendency for incumbent two-term parties to lose, balanced off of a voter population that leans Democratic and a voting map that leans Republican.
2020 is basically the same: with a huge global crisis and terrible economy, you'd expect the non-incumbent party to win the Presidency resoundingly, all January 6 stuff aside.
Based on the fundamentals NOW, a strong economy but with lingering resentment for inflation and an incumbent one-term party, the Democrats should win narrowly. Putting who is the actual people and whatever crazy twists and turns aside.
I don't actually believe in the fundamentals. It's just sort of crazy that after all the howling fantods and fury of 2016, it still boiled down to rough statistical par.
Great post. Wondering if there’s any word yet on regulating AI.
I'm really hoping the biotech revolution pans out! Not a day too soon. Also hoping 2024 is, if not mundane, a source of optimism.
Happy New Year!
A nice post to finish the year. A great mix of things to think about mixed in with optimism. Good luck with your Substack in the new year.