I’m sated with Thanksgiving leftovers, catching up on sleep, and I’ll just say: the OpenAI drama this past week gives me massive empathy for people who enjoy keeping up with the Kardashians. If only the stakes weren’t so high! Onward…. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman woke up Friday, November 17th, expecting a different day than the one he got. Also, most of us probably live in a world that is fundamentally different than we think it is. We won’t know
Many years ago (late 90s early 00s) I fell under the gaze of Ray Kurzweil's books and enjoyed the speculative predictions he made. At the time, especially in the 90s the crossover where machine intelligence would cross human seemed a bit much. What the greater theme of the writing was about was not the moment exactly but what the following decade would bring. An utterly unrecognizable world may be ushered in. I believe products and initiatives like Neuralink already have almost unlimited volunteers and the implants have been approved. I would expect that each of us within 3-5 years will know someone with a neuralink-type device implanted. This seemed so unlikely to me in the 90s but seems all but inevitable now. 2029 or earlier was the landmark year wherein a machine intelligence would exceed a human intelligence. The subsequent decade would begin to approach the CUMULATIVE humans intelligence in machines. I figure the last week was mostly about Microsoft getting value for their $14B investment thus far. Seems inevitable that Project Gemini will choose to push the envelope and ignore the barriers like OpenAI.
I've been following the train wreck at OpenAI with interest, largely because the BBC World Service was interested and kept reporting on it. It sounds like some real governance issues with the company - in fact the whole company is an analogy for AI in general - it's become much bigger and more complicated than the governance/ regulation structure is designed for.
I'm actually speaking with someone who has been looking at AI ethics and regulation this week, because the whole thing terrifies me and the nature of the internet means that national borders are largely meaningless.
I'm so glad you explained everything as I'm not up to date with the AI news. The unknown is always a bit daunting but in this case hopefully Altman will allow proper regulations so humanity isn't destroyed. (I can't believe I wrote that last bit but there it is.) One other issue tho-- who will regulate? Folks in government know nothing about advanced tech.
Many years ago (late 90s early 00s) I fell under the gaze of Ray Kurzweil's books and enjoyed the speculative predictions he made. At the time, especially in the 90s the crossover where machine intelligence would cross human seemed a bit much. What the greater theme of the writing was about was not the moment exactly but what the following decade would bring. An utterly unrecognizable world may be ushered in. I believe products and initiatives like Neuralink already have almost unlimited volunteers and the implants have been approved. I would expect that each of us within 3-5 years will know someone with a neuralink-type device implanted. This seemed so unlikely to me in the 90s but seems all but inevitable now. 2029 or earlier was the landmark year wherein a machine intelligence would exceed a human intelligence. The subsequent decade would begin to approach the CUMULATIVE humans intelligence in machines. I figure the last week was mostly about Microsoft getting value for their $14B investment thus far. Seems inevitable that Project Gemini will choose to push the envelope and ignore the barriers like OpenAI.
I've been following the train wreck at OpenAI with interest, largely because the BBC World Service was interested and kept reporting on it. It sounds like some real governance issues with the company - in fact the whole company is an analogy for AI in general - it's become much bigger and more complicated than the governance/ regulation structure is designed for.
I'm actually speaking with someone who has been looking at AI ethics and regulation this week, because the whole thing terrifies me and the nature of the internet means that national borders are largely meaningless.
I'm so glad you explained everything as I'm not up to date with the AI news. The unknown is always a bit daunting but in this case hopefully Altman will allow proper regulations so humanity isn't destroyed. (I can't believe I wrote that last bit but there it is.) One other issue tho-- who will regulate? Folks in government know nothing about advanced tech.
Thanks for your thoughts, I really appreciate hearing your insights from the viewpoint of risk management. That's sadly absent most of the time now.