I've been away from steady Substack reading. Recently added in the complication of an eye infection which limits the time I do it at all. Seeing your writing in the inbox was a WELCOME SUPRISE and VERY NICE. It is the only place I am likely to read about the heroic performance of Jerome Powell. Bravo. This is a resilient economy but the own goals are stacking up. Undermining basic research at prestige Universities and undermining three of our greatest exports (oil and LNG, higher education and soybeans) and that's just the first three months makes me wonder though.As a lover of history books I am beginning to fear whether we are ushering in a period of decline of our own making. Hope I'm wrong.
Excellent, looking forward to your essays as I too believe the US is worryingly forcing itself into recession. Could a certain level of US citizens be plotting for a poorer workforce, and therefore less costly manufacturing base? Surely not.
As a non-US person, sitting over hear in Europe, I wonder what impact a US decline in fortune will have on our economies, and have those who should predict such a fiasco even considered it.
Hi, Mark! I kept meaning to write but just.... didn't know where to start. It didn't get easier the longer I waited, and now seemed like a good enough time, so here we go.
I think Europe might(?) come out of this okay through alliances, though I'm no Europe expert. What seems clear to me is that the global world order has shifted rather suddenly, the new configuration isn't set yet, and it will take a while for awareness to catch up. For areas I don't know a ton about (like Europe and Asia), I personally use broad-based funds whose job is to automatically handle the things I don't know. Then I can focus on the things I do know more about.
But this is a good prompt to learn more about Europe and Asia in general, thank you.
Long-term, I think Europe is in a tough-ish geographical spot with regard to climate change: mass migration, the southern part getting too hot and then the northern part someday too cold if the AMOC collapses. I'm always struck, when I look at a map, by the fact that France is at about the same latitude as Newfoundland. But that seems too distant-future to really affect economies this year or next.
I've been away from steady Substack reading. Recently added in the complication of an eye infection which limits the time I do it at all. Seeing your writing in the inbox was a WELCOME SUPRISE and VERY NICE. It is the only place I am likely to read about the heroic performance of Jerome Powell. Bravo. This is a resilient economy but the own goals are stacking up. Undermining basic research at prestige Universities and undermining three of our greatest exports (oil and LNG, higher education and soybeans) and that's just the first three months makes me wonder though.As a lover of history books I am beginning to fear whether we are ushering in a period of decline of our own making. Hope I'm wrong.
Excellent, looking forward to your essays as I too believe the US is worryingly forcing itself into recession. Could a certain level of US citizens be plotting for a poorer workforce, and therefore less costly manufacturing base? Surely not.
As a non-US person, sitting over hear in Europe, I wonder what impact a US decline in fortune will have on our economies, and have those who should predict such a fiasco even considered it.
Hi, Mark! I kept meaning to write but just.... didn't know where to start. It didn't get easier the longer I waited, and now seemed like a good enough time, so here we go.
I think Europe might(?) come out of this okay through alliances, though I'm no Europe expert. What seems clear to me is that the global world order has shifted rather suddenly, the new configuration isn't set yet, and it will take a while for awareness to catch up. For areas I don't know a ton about (like Europe and Asia), I personally use broad-based funds whose job is to automatically handle the things I don't know. Then I can focus on the things I do know more about.
But this is a good prompt to learn more about Europe and Asia in general, thank you.
Long-term, I think Europe is in a tough-ish geographical spot with regard to climate change: mass migration, the southern part getting too hot and then the northern part someday too cold if the AMOC collapses. I'm always struck, when I look at a map, by the fact that France is at about the same latitude as Newfoundland. But that seems too distant-future to really affect economies this year or next.
I really enjoyed the clarity and cogency of this piece. Thanks and I share many of your fears about what's next ....
Thank you! I'll be digging more into these kinds of complex-systems topics in the coming weeks and months, I suspect it will be quite the exploration.