I admit, I'm pretty concerned about our increasing reliance on algorithms. Most of what I see is algorithms which don't work as well as a competent human, or a team of competent humans working together. But the algorithms are fooling people without much knowledge that genuine expertise isn't needed. They are amplifying Dunning-Kruger effects.
The identification apps which claim to be able to identify plants and fungi are a great example. The accuracy of the plant apps, with a decent specimen, isn't bad, perhaps around 80%. For fungi, it's a lot less. Much lower than a decent expert. But the apps convince people with no expertise that all they need to do is hold their phone over something and they'll get a name. But a human who has acquired genuine expertise will know more than just a name, they know the risks. They'll understand that a mistake with Amanita or Apiaceae is not the same as a mistake with Psytharellaceae or Arecaceae, for example.
Yes, you put it well! Generative AI in particular often sounds confident in its answers, even when that's not the case ("most probable choice among many options" does not mean the same thing as "highly confident") and the answers are wrong. Human experts are so, so important for nuance and context.
Interesting - I hadn't considered this connection, but it would be fascinating if the two turned out to be related. I may dig to see what data exists around FICO prompting changes in mortgage issuance in the early 1990s.... I think one of the big drivers building up to the subprime crisis was that lenders often ignored borrowers' ability to repay. But maybe FICO gave them some cover to do this?
Also, on a separate high horse, I dislike that saved wealth gets under-weighted relative to income in mortgage calculations. People can (and often do!) leave their jobs shortly after getting a mortgage. They're not going to leave their assets.
Stephanie – this is my FAVORITE of your posts thus far. It manages to breeze through many complex things, make them accessible and sprinkle in great examples!!! I’ve got a lot of comments this time. Gonna stop at 5. Since the comment is REAL LONG, gonna say it here. This is the very best of educational, practical and witty writing. Who could imagine algorithm talk could be so FUN.
(1) FICO is another Twin Cities company, Fair Isaac Corporation has kept a low profile but was early to the party with a great idea!
(2) Spain vs Finland reminded me of the most absurd of childhood stories. There are so many barriers and checkpoints in our lives now. Each of them individually make sense but it seems to squeeze out the fun. I had an uncle who could talk his way into anything and always “had a guy”. Imagine this (obviously pre 9/11). We lived near the airport in Buffalo and he had stopped in. He offered to accompany my Dad and my older brother and I. He had some sort of “pass” and we breezed our way through the terminal. He then proceeded TO TAKE MY OLDER brother out on the jetway and up the stairs. My brother ended up getting to go up in the cockpit of an American Airlines plane. This story seems IMPOSSIBLE but I have squared it with my brother who remembers it JUST LIKE IT HAPPENED.
(3) ayahuasca had me ROFL
(4) college frat parties – I always felt my sons had a much more challenging pile of consequences than I did at a rural engineering school in the middle of nowhere. It was a KEY part of growing up as you describe!
(5) Yours was a PERFECT explanation of VPNs. I get a free VPN with my cloud subscription. The other day, I got a notification from my browser that my account was logged into twelve different devices — hmmm
Hi, Mark! Glad this one hit the right bells for you. I think it's really important to have that space to make mistakes and learn and grow, and younger generations don't have that, maybe have never had that. No wonder anxiety has skyrocketed! Your airplane story is great and sounds quite possible pre-9/11. I remember going to the gate with my family who would wave goodbye as I walked down the jetway. Security was just a conveyer belt to scan my bag and a metal detector for me. It was a relaxed experience.
If your browser gives you a message like that, you can usually pull up a list of the devices. Occasionally, I notice sessions that are still open from my own device a few weeks prior; maybe the device battery ran out while I was logged in, or I just did Command-Q if I had to hurry to do something else, or I accidentally closed a window. I log out these old sessions whenever I notice them.
I admit, I'm pretty concerned about our increasing reliance on algorithms. Most of what I see is algorithms which don't work as well as a competent human, or a team of competent humans working together. But the algorithms are fooling people without much knowledge that genuine expertise isn't needed. They are amplifying Dunning-Kruger effects.
The identification apps which claim to be able to identify plants and fungi are a great example. The accuracy of the plant apps, with a decent specimen, isn't bad, perhaps around 80%. For fungi, it's a lot less. Much lower than a decent expert. But the apps convince people with no expertise that all they need to do is hold their phone over something and they'll get a name. But a human who has acquired genuine expertise will know more than just a name, they know the risks. They'll understand that a mistake with Amanita or Apiaceae is not the same as a mistake with Psytharellaceae or Arecaceae, for example.
Yes, you put it well! Generative AI in particular often sounds confident in its answers, even when that's not the case ("most probable choice among many options" does not mean the same thing as "highly confident") and the answers are wrong. Human experts are so, so important for nuance and context.
Melanie -- The Dunning-Kruger effect is going to become a future post THANKS TO YOU!!! The train is not THAT CLOSE -- we can make it!
Glad to be of service.
"Isn’t it weird that FICO scores didn’t exist before 1989? They seem like a fact of life to me, but they’re quite recent!"
My same thought. And exactly a generation later, a subprime housing crisis.
Interesting - I hadn't considered this connection, but it would be fascinating if the two turned out to be related. I may dig to see what data exists around FICO prompting changes in mortgage issuance in the early 1990s.... I think one of the big drivers building up to the subprime crisis was that lenders often ignored borrowers' ability to repay. But maybe FICO gave them some cover to do this?
Also, on a separate high horse, I dislike that saved wealth gets under-weighted relative to income in mortgage calculations. People can (and often do!) leave their jobs shortly after getting a mortgage. They're not going to leave their assets.
Stephanie – this is my FAVORITE of your posts thus far. It manages to breeze through many complex things, make them accessible and sprinkle in great examples!!! I’ve got a lot of comments this time. Gonna stop at 5. Since the comment is REAL LONG, gonna say it here. This is the very best of educational, practical and witty writing. Who could imagine algorithm talk could be so FUN.
(1) FICO is another Twin Cities company, Fair Isaac Corporation has kept a low profile but was early to the party with a great idea!
(2) Spain vs Finland reminded me of the most absurd of childhood stories. There are so many barriers and checkpoints in our lives now. Each of them individually make sense but it seems to squeeze out the fun. I had an uncle who could talk his way into anything and always “had a guy”. Imagine this (obviously pre 9/11). We lived near the airport in Buffalo and he had stopped in. He offered to accompany my Dad and my older brother and I. He had some sort of “pass” and we breezed our way through the terminal. He then proceeded TO TAKE MY OLDER brother out on the jetway and up the stairs. My brother ended up getting to go up in the cockpit of an American Airlines plane. This story seems IMPOSSIBLE but I have squared it with my brother who remembers it JUST LIKE IT HAPPENED.
(3) ayahuasca had me ROFL
(4) college frat parties – I always felt my sons had a much more challenging pile of consequences than I did at a rural engineering school in the middle of nowhere. It was a KEY part of growing up as you describe!
(5) Yours was a PERFECT explanation of VPNs. I get a free VPN with my cloud subscription. The other day, I got a notification from my browser that my account was logged into twelve different devices — hmmm
Hi, Mark! Glad this one hit the right bells for you. I think it's really important to have that space to make mistakes and learn and grow, and younger generations don't have that, maybe have never had that. No wonder anxiety has skyrocketed! Your airplane story is great and sounds quite possible pre-9/11. I remember going to the gate with my family who would wave goodbye as I walked down the jetway. Security was just a conveyer belt to scan my bag and a metal detector for me. It was a relaxed experience.
If your browser gives you a message like that, you can usually pull up a list of the devices. Occasionally, I notice sessions that are still open from my own device a few weeks prior; maybe the device battery ran out while I was logged in, or I just did Command-Q if I had to hurry to do something else, or I accidentally closed a window. I log out these old sessions whenever I notice them.
Thanks for the browser tips!!! I feel it has increased when I started using the VPN but who knows? Airport security seems designed to raise anxiety.