I want to write about plans: security incident response plans, recovery and resolution plans, crisis management plans, pandemic plans. Playbooks that explore possible misfortune and lay out action steps for, “What comes next?” A major problem with plans is that they look good on paper, especially after an army of MBAs and a phalanx of lawyers polishes the PowerPoint. But
Stephanie -- Your first couple of paragraphs reminded me of one of the VERY BEST sports quotes of all time. The Heavyweight boxer, Mike Tyson, not known for his eloquence once said "Everyone has a plan until somebody gets punched in the face".
My early career 15+ years were in heavily regulated businesses that were genuinely complex and the consequence of error was risk to human life. Both the manufacture and operational training for flying aircraft whether military or civilian or the construction and operation of nuclear power stations were managed similarly. Full mockup simulators and the costly testing of all sorts of scenarios was just the cost of doing business. Most importantly each new wrinkle on which operators should be aware could be layered into training. As the years went by it became apparent to me that the layered cost of all this preparation was a burden and likely made any additional complexity (cooler airplanes or advanced reactors) highly unlikely. They would simply collapse the ability to fund such things especially after the collapse of the Soviet Union. I think that is why only nation states like China have attempted to enter the spaces with near unlimited budgets.
What is interesting now only a generation later is all sorts of businesses operate with MUCH LARGER risks and complexity yet they lack the regulator oversight to demand true simulators. I believe we just roll the dice with technocrats in the background deployed to fix the oops when and if the genie is out of the bottle. Maybe too expensive to make the underlying business workable. We are at the mercy of one by one plans, hopefully practiced frequently enough.
On the whole I follow, or subscribe to in this case, those I hope will add value to me, my life, my ability to attract money into my business, and those who help me to learn and grow. This stack, in an oddly right here right now kind of way, delivers what it says on the packaging.
The nature of plans and their role in crisis management are both insightful and pragmatic. Plans may not always unfold exactly as envisioned in the face of real-life uncertainties. They are good as a starting point, but they can't be taken as an exhaustive roadmap. Focusing on the process rather than attempting to predict every detail is key in the face of uncertainty. Thank you for sharing your wisdom on this critical aspect of risk management.
One of the things that I've seen good planning help with is in relationships. A crisis is not a good time for relationship-building. A bit of planning and forethought can help identify relationships which might become important when something goes wrong - and then something can be done about it. I have a particular memory of two situations where decisions needed to be made quickly in a pest incursion. In one situation, there had been a lot of groundwork in relationships. This wasn't specifically aimed at dealing with the situation in hand, but it turned out to be crucial. In the other situation, there was, in my opinion, enough information and time to justify planning and building important relationships. That didn't happen and the impacts are still being felt.
As someone who works in research, I appreciate this piece a lot. My team and I draft test plans for experiments in manufacturing facilities, and very rarely does the plan come off exactly as designed. I try to teach others that the more contingencies you can plan for, and the more thought that goes into back up options, the more prepared you will be to respond to unexpected events.
Plans. Important yet not always predictable. I write Intentions for my day. Sometimes it works. 😃
Stephanie -- Your first couple of paragraphs reminded me of one of the VERY BEST sports quotes of all time. The Heavyweight boxer, Mike Tyson, not known for his eloquence once said "Everyone has a plan until somebody gets punched in the face".
My early career 15+ years were in heavily regulated businesses that were genuinely complex and the consequence of error was risk to human life. Both the manufacture and operational training for flying aircraft whether military or civilian or the construction and operation of nuclear power stations were managed similarly. Full mockup simulators and the costly testing of all sorts of scenarios was just the cost of doing business. Most importantly each new wrinkle on which operators should be aware could be layered into training. As the years went by it became apparent to me that the layered cost of all this preparation was a burden and likely made any additional complexity (cooler airplanes or advanced reactors) highly unlikely. They would simply collapse the ability to fund such things especially after the collapse of the Soviet Union. I think that is why only nation states like China have attempted to enter the spaces with near unlimited budgets.
What is interesting now only a generation later is all sorts of businesses operate with MUCH LARGER risks and complexity yet they lack the regulator oversight to demand true simulators. I believe we just roll the dice with technocrats in the background deployed to fix the oops when and if the genie is out of the bottle. Maybe too expensive to make the underlying business workable. We are at the mercy of one by one plans, hopefully practiced frequently enough.
On the whole I follow, or subscribe to in this case, those I hope will add value to me, my life, my ability to attract money into my business, and those who help me to learn and grow. This stack, in an oddly right here right now kind of way, delivers what it says on the packaging.
Thank you.
The nature of plans and their role in crisis management are both insightful and pragmatic. Plans may not always unfold exactly as envisioned in the face of real-life uncertainties. They are good as a starting point, but they can't be taken as an exhaustive roadmap. Focusing on the process rather than attempting to predict every detail is key in the face of uncertainty. Thank you for sharing your wisdom on this critical aspect of risk management.
One of the things that I've seen good planning help with is in relationships. A crisis is not a good time for relationship-building. A bit of planning and forethought can help identify relationships which might become important when something goes wrong - and then something can be done about it. I have a particular memory of two situations where decisions needed to be made quickly in a pest incursion. In one situation, there had been a lot of groundwork in relationships. This wasn't specifically aimed at dealing with the situation in hand, but it turned out to be crucial. In the other situation, there was, in my opinion, enough information and time to justify planning and building important relationships. That didn't happen and the impacts are still being felt.
As someone who works in research, I appreciate this piece a lot. My team and I draft test plans for experiments in manufacturing facilities, and very rarely does the plan come off exactly as designed. I try to teach others that the more contingencies you can plan for, and the more thought that goes into back up options, the more prepared you will be to respond to unexpected events.