Predictions That Are Aging Well

Hi readers,

I’m still recovering from Covid (so frustrating!), so I want to shine a spotlight on Risk Musings posts that are aging well so far. I say so far because things change, and I could end up totally embarrassed about how wrong these posts turn out! But as of today, they’re looking pretty good and were a bit ahead of the crowd.

A few ground rules:

• These are not evergreen posts, though I have plenty of those. Instead, they predicted something (events or economic outcomes).

• These essays are more than three months old (they are aging).

• There’s more data available now than when I wrote the post. That doesn’t mean the issue is fully resolved.

Here goes, the unmodified posts that are looking better every day, from newest to oldest:

Aging Well

Recession Tug-of-War: Downside versus Bright Side (July 2023) - squeaking in just outside the three-month boundary, I’m increasingly pleased with how right-on this essay looks (so far, yes, I know!). I’ll probably do an annual economic tug-of-war essay.

More, Not Less: Regeneration and Reframing (June 2023) - it’s early to call this one, but it’s looking promising: this proposal simultaneously solves for human happiness, AI job displacement, and climate impact. Even Jamie Dimon recently commented that future generations of workers will probably work part-time (October 2023).

System Dynamics of a Bank Run (March 2023) - in which I posited that being publicly traded is an independent risk factor increasing the likelihood of a bank run (yes, I put it in a footnote, but it’s there!). Unfortunately, if a bank is already public, putting out a going-private announcement is probably also a huge risk!

Why Can’t We Have a Strong Labor Market and a Good Economy? (February 2023) - as it turns out (so far, anyway), we totally can, for all the reasons I listed in this essay: demographics, Covid effects, immigration policy. I really like this one.

Musings on AI at a Turning Point (December 2022) - in which I saw the AI mega-trend coming the first time I used ChatGPT.

To Fight Inflation, Build Starter Homes (November 2022) - wherein I predicted a residential housing crash wouldn’t happen in the US because of demographics and an outright housing shortage.

Retrocession Roulette: When Climate Change Makes Insurance Interesting (September 2022) - I spent a lot of time on this prescient essay, and it was worth it. Not popular at the time, it’s gaining credence and weight as it ages.

So there we have it, the aging-well roundup. I hope you enjoy reading these, and I hope I’m feeling great soon so I can bring you more forward-thinking takes!

Thanks for reading,

Stephanie